Monday, January 19, 2015

May the Odds be Ever in Your Favor---Part II

Sorry, again this post will not have anything to do with the Hunger Games....

In my last post, I referenced the article The Probability of Life which is the evolutionist's response to prove that the Odds are Ever in the Favor of Evolution.    Specifically this article discusses the size of the ocean, the numbers of "building blocks" of life probably present and thus the odds that they could bump into each other and randomly assemble into a viable, self replicating, functioning peptide that later would evolve into DNA.

This is what the article says:  "Abiogenesis was a long process with many small incremental steps, all governed by the non-random forces of Natural Selection and chemistry. The very first stages of abiogenesis were no more than simple self-replicating molecules, which might hardly have been called alive at all."

SO first the article throws out the notion that this was random, conceding that it has to be a guided process----but not supernatural!  No, it was guided by the hands of "Natural Law".   

Isn't it amazing that they don't question the fact that all the necessary ingredients for this process to begin even existed under the right conditions and correct quantities to begin with? 

And the article does not explain that to be a self replicating molecule other molecules must also exist that will help it to self replicate----Peptides  do not spontaneously replicate, they have helpers that bring the right building blocks to them, that help them to "unwind" to be copied and then "zip" them back up after replication.

The article ignores this and continues on with the probabilities of  these peptides forming (without their helpers)  They state that " the simplest theorized self-replicating peptide is only 32 amino acids long. The probability of it forming randomly, in sequential trials, is approximately 1 in 1040"

The author conceded that this appears to be an impossible number.   (and also conceded it is a "theorized" molecule---not a proven one)

So they try to demonstrate that this is not  impossible odds under the right conditions:  "But remember that in the prebiotic oceans of the early Earth, there would be billions of trials taking place simultaneously as the oceans, rich in amino acids, were continuously churned by the tidal forces of the moon and the harsh weather conditions of the Earth.

In fact, if we assume the volume of the oceans were 1024 liters, and the amino acid concentration was 10-6M (which is actually very dilute), then almost 1031 self-replicating peptides would form in under a year, let alone millions of years. So, even given the difficult chances of 1 in 1040, the first stages of abiogenesis could have started very quickly indeed.

Sounds pretty convincing, doesn't it?   It made me take I started to picture it.  I know the world was a different place, but just how different was it?   Life does not exist at all levels of the ocean.  Actually,  most of the oceans are quite barren.   Most life in the oceans exist in very small areas, such as coral reefs or the edges of trenches.     

So what percentage of this (assumed) 10 to the 24th power liter volume of ocean have the correct conditions, the right temperatures, pH, salinity, and light to permit these trials to take place?  

When we look at life on earth, we still see things that existed early in evolution-----"living fossils" they are called, such as crocodiles.  They were around when dinosaurs lived.  When we look at the simplest life forms---bacteria, there are "living fossils" there as well----archaebacteria.   So if these ancient living organisms still exist, it would seem to me that in certain areas of the ocean we should be seeing the assembly process described above still occurring.   

And we should be able to replicate the process in labs.

But we don't see this in the oceans today and we can't reproduce it in labs.

So that means this article is a hypothesis, is not proof.

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